After back-to-back losses over Round’s 5 & 6 that have somewhat halted the momentum built off the back of a 4-0 start, the consensus around the Hawks premiership credentials has shifted in the minds of some.
Dubbed by many as the equal flag favourite alongside Brisbane and comfortably positioned at the top of the ladder entering their Round 4 bye, a blowout loss to Port Adelaide and a heartbreaking defeat at the hands of Geelong has seen the Hawks slide to 7th on the AFL table. Speaking immediately after their Easter Monday loss, coach Sam Mitchell maintained his trademark realism, stating that his squad “can’t do some of the stuff that we did today and expect to beat good sides”.
This relative downtick in form can be attributed to multiple factors, including injuries to key figures Will Day, Jack Scrimshaw and Connor MacDonald, multiple high-stakes matches and a statistically supported reality that their start to the season wasn’t as dominant as it initially seemed.
In fact, according to Champion Data, Hawthorn has the fifth worst offensive profile in the AFL and is ranked 15th in their ability to move the ball from one end of the ground to the other. Compounded by some form issues from key players and intense opposition analysis after a 2024 season that caught many teams off guard, the subtle tapering of momentum that Sam Mitchell’s men have undergone has some questioning their credentials.
However, just as the coach himself acknowledged that things may not have been traveling as smoothly as it may have seemed early in the season, a couple of disheartening losses can often mask the positives; of which there are many for Hawthorn fans early in 2025.
Jack Gunston’s Second Wind
After requesting a trade back to his beloved Hawthorn after a difficult one-year stint at the Brisbane Lions, doubts swirled around the then 31 year-old’s ability to offer much on-field value, especially due to debilitating back and knee injuries that restricted his mobility significantly.
However all Hawks fans were pleasantly surprised by the output of the three-time premiership forward in season 2024, as the invaluable insight and guidance he provided to the young forward line was accompanied by a strong offensive impact that saw Gunston kick 29.17 from 18 games.
So far in 2025, the Hawthorn legend has seemed to have gained even more access to the fountain of youth he sought out after his return to Waverley in late 2023. After missing out on selection across the first two matches, and only entering Round 2’s matchup against Carlton mid-game, Gunston has amazingly tallied 13 goals so far this season; placing him level with Jeremy Cameron at #14 across the competition.
The 33-year-old currently leads the Hawks in total goals (13), average goals (3.3), shots at goal (23) and marks inside-50 (15) and is ranked elite amongst players of his position for disposals, kicks, goals and fantasy points. Unbelievably, Gunston is tracking for a near career-best season and has so far been the Hawks’ most consistent avenue to goal.
Jai Newcombe's Start to the Season
So far in season 2025, the likes of Karl Amon, James Sicily, Dylan Moore, Jack Gunston and Lloyd Meek have all laid the groundwork for stellar seasons and subsequently strong finishes in the Peter Crimmins Medal. However all signs would point towards Jai Newcombe leading this award handsomely across the first six matches.
Following the trend of his career to date, the midfielder has improved his output yet again, averaging career-highs in disposals (25.7), tackles (6), clearances (7.2), score-involvements (7.2) and fantasy points (103.2). Arguably best-on-ground in four of his team’s six matches and with a strong lead in the AFLCA Champion Player of the Year Award for his side, Newcombe has started 2025 like a house on fire, as improvements in his offensive game and kicking precision have noticeably elevated his already strong play to that of a genuine AFL superstar.
The Under-23 Brigade
Historically, teams vying for premiership contention are led by battle-hardened, experienced veterans who have years of AFL experience and preseason conditioning under their belt, however the age demographic of Sam Mitchell’s side somewhat bucks this trend. In what should fill fans with confidence that their team will be in contention for years to come, some of the Hawks’ best players have the added bonus of youth on their side.
Despite all being under the age of 23, Massimo D’Ambrosio, Jack Ginnivan, Calsher Dear, Connor MacDonald, Cam Mackenzie, Josh Ward, Nick Watson and Josh Weddle are all key members of Hawthorn’s starting-22. This age profile is perfectly suited to allow Hawthorn to consistently compete for premiership glory for years to come, and in a similar mould to team’s like Geelong and Sydney over the past decade, avoid the fall-off that often follows a period of contention.
Those To Return
Generally, an injury list of only three players is considered a rarity and extremely lucky, however the status of the names currently on the sidelines for Hawthorn means an extreme mid-season boost is on the cards.
Despite still having a minimum of 3-4 months before his return from a stress fracture in his foot, the impact that star midfielder Will Day provides the team is perfectly summarised by their 16-4 record with him in the side since the start of 2024. His ability to use his size, skill and smarts to influence the match on any line of the ground cannot be understated, and could prove to be invaluable if he can return before the end of the year.
Additionally, the pending return of key forward’s Mitch Lewis (7-9 weeks) and Calsher Dear (returns this week via the VFL) will provide much-needed support and structure to a forward line that has, at times, looked somewhat dysfunctional. Dear, who burst onto the scene in 2024 with 25 goals from 17 games and constant displays of skill that belies his youth, will provide both an imposing aerial presence and reliable offensive weapon.
And though many fans have forgotten just how talented the big man is after multiple years interrupted by injury, Lewis’ return from a torn ACL looms as a major wildcard, as if he can regain the form and confidence that saw him average 2.5 goals in 2022, it will no doubt catapult Hawthorn’s scoring power into a new realm.
Belief at Box Hill
Despite much of the broader focus being directed to their senior team, Hawthorn’s VFL affiliate Box Hill has been a brilliant opportunity for some senior-listed players to display their skill.
Having started the season with a 3-0 record that has them firmly placed at 3rd on the VFL ladder, Box Hill senior coach Zane Littlejohn has his team playing spirited team football that is being fueled by the play of Henry Hustwaite, Max Ramsden, Ned Reeves, Seamus Mitchell and Jai Serong.
In what is a perfect display of the significant depth of the side, all these players could easily find a role in the senior team of many different AFL clubs, but many are likely to get a chance to prove their ware at some point across the season; offering Sam Mitchell ultimate flexibility and scope when developing the lineup to help bring a flag back to Waverley Park.
The Upcoming Draw
Though the last two weeks have put a dampener on an otherwise positive start to the season for Hawthorn, their upcoming draw that features matches against West Coast (18th), Richmond (15th) and Melbourne (17th) serves as a perfect opportunity to regain some confidence.
Despite the fact they are guaranteed to be without the likes of Conor Nash (suspension), Will Day and Mitch Lewis (injury), fans should enter each of the next three clashes quietly confident, as each three opponents have struggled to develop and implement an effective game plan so far this season.
Additionally, each game could prove a valuable opportunity to boost a relatively weak percentage that could prove the difference between a good and great springboard into the finals.
