With Hawthorn’s spot in the finals all but locked in, it’s time for the boys to head up to the Gabba for a finals preview.
Hawthorn’s comprehensive win over the Melbourne Demons last Saturday has put the Hawks at fifth place on the ladder, a mere 0.4% shy from fourth place.
You couldn’t ask for a better start to a twilight game. Three goals from three inside fifties within the first ten minutes, including a contentious opening goal from vice captain Dylan Moore, who insisted it was touched, followed by two from veteran Jack Gunston. It was the hot start Hawthorn needed to get things going.
Jack Ginnivan was precise in his deliveries to Gunston, who later had two more opportunities, albeit missed, later in the quarter. However, it was Gunston who stood out throughout the match, taking commanding marks and slotting a total of seven goals.
The Hawks’ defence was in fine form, with captain James Sicily leading in intercepts, resulting in multiple rebound fifties and a suffocated Melbourne forward line. By the first break, Hawthorn had a 27-point lead, kicking five to Melbourne’s solitary goal.
Rain started within the last ten minutes of the first quarter, quickly creating slippery conditions. Hawthorn struggled in the clearances, but made up for it in pressure and moving the ball well by foot, registering 106 marks (-34) for the game.
It was a tighter arm wrestle early in the second quarter, with wet conditions and increased intent from Melbourne. Christian Petracca was everywhere and almost kicked the opener. But a piercing kick from Jai Newcombe following the rebound found Moore, who slotted his second with ease.
Hawthorn’s ball movement continued to be strong, particularly in the air, with some impressive marks from Newcombe and Mitch Lewis. However, an unforced error from Karl Amon resulted in a costly turnover and a goal from Clayton Oliver, breaking the Hawks’ run of five goals.
The momentum swung in Melbourne’s favour, but the Dees failed to capitalise, and Hawthorn’s lead extended to 33 by the halfway mark. The game would carry on much in the same way following the break, with Hawthorn maintaining their lead, conceding few goals to the opposition.
Nick Watson was subbed off in the third quarter, making way for veteran Luke Bruest, who recently announced his retirement. By the fourteen minute mark of the third, the crowd erupted in their signature Breuuust chant as he kicked his first and only goal of the game.
A late lapse of concentration saw the Hawks concede three goals in quick concession, eroding a 54-point lead back to 36, a slight dent to their percentage which would have seen them leapfrog Collingwood Magpies to reach the top four. Nevertheless, the win was secure; as are Hawthorn’s chances at a second finals berth in as many years.
As such, their last game for the home and away season will take place at the Gabba, where they’ll face a solid Brisbane Lions outfit.
Tale of the Tape
Hawthorn last played Brisbane at the Gabba in 2019, resulting in a 19-point loss. Brisbane has won the last two out of three against the Hawks at the Gabba.
If the side goes in unchanged, only seven players will have played Brisbane at the Gabba before (Blake Hardwick, Conor Nash, Gunston, Sicily, James Worpel, Bruest, and Lewis).
Back then, in Round 19, 2019, there was less than a goal in it until Brisbane broke away in the second half. Worpel was best on ground for the Hawks with 34 disposals, while Nash stood out with two goals.
The Lions’ home turf isn’t quite the fortress they’d like it to be. This season, Brisbane are 6-4 at home this season, including a two-point loss to the Sydney Swans in Round 22. Narrow that down, and Brisbane are 2-3 from their last five games at home.
Hawthorn last faced Brisbane back in Round 11, where they dealt the Hawks a 33-point loss at the MCG. The Lions decimated the Hawks in the clearances (41-24), in the forward line, with a conversion rate of 60.9% to Hawthorn’s 40%, and on the pressure gauge, out-tackling them 59 to 36.
Dayne Zorko and Lachie Neale combined for 65 disposals and seven clearances, while Hugh McCluggage had a whopping 11 clearances for the match. Callum Ah Chee was Brisbane’s best forward, kicking four goals, while Charlie Cameron snagged three of his own.
Meanwhile, Connor MacDonald was Hawthorn’s only multiple goal scorer with three, while Hawthorn’s tall forwards in Guston and Mabior Chol were kept goalless. Karl Amon was busy with 29 disposals, 11 rebound 50s; however, he was one of eight players who failed to lay a single tackle for the game.
All in all, it was another bump in a mid-season rough patch for the Hawks, in what would be their second of three consecutive losses.
The Short of It
According to the ladder predictor (and AFL7), the best position Hawthorn could find themselves should they win on Sunday, is second, provided other results fall their way. Realistically a (at minimum 20-point) win would likely see Hawthorn just breach the top four and secure a double chance in the finals.
However, unfortunately for Hawthorn, the odds here are in Brisbane’s favour, following their belting of Fremantle in Perth last round and this game taking place in Brisbane. At worst, Hawthorn could fall to eighth – still safe, but likely to face the Gold Coast Suns in an elimination final.
Whatever the result, the team at Hawthorn should be content with their efforts this season having overcome both overzealous hype and doubts from footy pundits and fans alike to take a punt at their second finals campaign in a row.
The Hawks go into their Sunday night clash at the Gabba relatively unchanged, with an extended squad which includes Cam Mackenzie, Sam Butler, and Ned Reeves. First bounce is at 7:20pm.
