Can Hawthorn notch consecutive wins before the mid-season bye?
Following an important win against the Western Bulldogs last Thursday, punters and pundits alike are expecting a close game this Friday, as the Hawthorn Hawks face the Adelaide Crows down in Tasmania.
Hawthorn’s place in the eight was looking precarious coming into round 13, having lost their last three to top four sides, and losing their captain, James Sicily, with a persistent hip injury.
Adding to their woes were the absence of their livewire forward, Nick Watson, and reliable defender Jack Scrimshaw.
Another loss could have seen them potentially drop out of the eight altogether, leaving them little room to course correct before the midseason bye.
However, the Hawks found some spark in their five day break, coming out of the gate hard and fast. After lacklustre performances against Collingwood and Brisbane, Hawthorn put on a far more disciplined and battle-hardened game, beating the Dogs in tackles, possession, and pressure.
Jack Ginnivan kicked things off with his hundredth AFL goal for the opener, with Mabior Chol and Josh Weddle adding to Hawthorn’s lead, which the Bulldogs were unable to erode for the remainder of the game. The Hawks would finish the night 22 points up, with man of the match, Mabior Chol kicking four in what was arguably his best game as a member of the brown and gold.
Meanwhile, the Adelaide Crows faced the Brisbane Lions on their home turf, in what was a spirited performance, coming from behind to topple the Lions within the final quarter. It was a wet and wild Friday night at Adelaide Oval, resulting in a high pressure, low scoring affair.
Brisbane had led the match for three quarters until the Crows kicked five answered goals, while the Lions were left to rue several missed opportunities. Josh Rachele and Ben Keays kicked six between them including the sealer, pinching the win by a mere five points.
Their victory sees them sitting at third place on the ladder, cementing their status as contenders for the premiership.
The Last Time They Meet
Hawthorn has won the last three of five against Adelaide, including two wins last year in round’s twelve and 20.
After beating the Crows at the MCG by 27 points in round twelve, Hawthorn continued their strong form against them with a dominant 66 point win at Adelaide Oval. Hawthorn kept Adelaide almost scoreless for much of the second half, kicking a whopping 13 unanswered goals.
Hawthorn had eleven goal scorers for the match, including milestone man, James Sicily, who kicked two in his 150th game, Mabior Chol (two), Nick Watson (two), Luke Bruest (two), and Connor Macdonald (two).
The last time the sides met at the University of Tasmania Stadium (back in April, 2023), it was a tight contest, with four lead changes over the course of the game, and neither side leading by more than three points by the breaks.
Early in the final quarter, Hawthorn managed to reach a match high lead of 13 points. However, it wasn’t to last, with the Crows kicking two unanswered goals and four behinds, ultimately stealing the lead in the dying minutes. Matthew Nicks’ men won the day by three points, their first win in Launceston since 2005.
In an interesting statistical twist, there are only five players from either Hawthorn or Adelaide who have played at least three games from the last five between the two sides. Karl Amon is the highlight here, averaging 21.7 disposals, from his last three games against Adelaide in brown and gold.
Tale of the Tape
This is third vs sixth, with a game separating the two on the ladder. The Crows come in with all the momentum, winning their last three in a row, however the fact the game is being played on the Hawks’ home deck is a major advantage for Sam Mitchell’s men.
The Crows are ranked fifth in the competition for average inside-50s (55) and first for goal differential (+4.8), which is made evident by their strong percentage on the ladder (137.2) off the back of their potent forward line. They are also ranked fourth in the competition for average tackles (64.3), while the Hawks, after improving their pressure game that has been noticeably lacking the last couple weeks, are now eighth (averaging 60.5).
The Crows are also ranked second in the competition for hitouts per game, with their ruckman, Reilly O’Brien, averaging 38.3 hitouts and 10.4 to advantage (third best in the competition). This should result in a competitive match up between him and Lloyd Meek, who registered an impressive 48 hitouts last week to continue his stellar year.
The Adelaide forward line is particularly potent, with Riley Thilthorpe and Darcy Fogarty, who are tied sixth in the race for the Coleman medal (28 goals for the season), leading the way.
The Side
Hawthorn will make just two changes to its side this week, substituting Finn Maginness for NIck Watson and an injured James Worpel for Henry Hustwaite.
Since returning to Box Hill, Hustwaite has averaged 32 disposals, five tackles, and as such will be a welcome substitute for Worpel, who suffered a serious corkie last Thursday. He will join fellow Box Hill stars, Seamus Mitchell, Sam Butler and Max Ramsden, who were rewarded a second week in the senior side following solid performances against the Dogs.
The Short of It
Can Hawthorn knock off their second top-eight side for the season and secure their place in the eight? Can they register two wins in a row without James Sicily? And can they quell Adelaide’s firepower up forward?
If so, where does that put the Hawks?
Following the bye, there are nine rounds left in the home and away season. In that time Hawthorn will have three home games at the MCG, two in Tasmania, and the remainder on the road. They will have to face Adelaide (in Adelaide), Collingwood and Brisbane (in Brisbane) again, as well as a rematch against current bogey team Port Adelaide (UTAS). Also of note is their matchup against Fremantle on their home deck – a side who has been threatening the eight for much of the season.
A loss this week would hardly mean their season is over, but it would certainly mean doubts about Hawthorn’s place amongst the competition’s elite resurfacing. The competition between ninth and fifth on the ladder is, much like last season, incredibly tight, and a couple of missed opportunities could very well see Hawthorn’s finals prospects slip away.
However, a win here would further entrench their position in the eight, and give them the momentum when they return from the bye and face the Kangaroos, likely with the addition of a revitalized James Sicily.
Last week’s win felt like a glimpse of the exciting, rising Hawthorn side we saw last year. If they have truly recaptured that magic, then we should expect a very exciting game and next half of the season.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows
Round 14 • Friday 13 June 2025 • 7:40 PM (AEST)
UTAS Stadium, Launceston • Palawa
