Hawthorn are looking to make the most of their solid form, following a dominating win against the North Melbourne at UTAS.
Hawthorn managed to come out of the gate strong on Saturday afternoon, immediately shaking off any post-bye sluggishness. The two Jacks, in Ginnivan and Gunston, got things started slotting the first two of five straight majors. Veteran Jack Gunston had a night out, kicking a personal best seven goals, while Mabior Chol equalled his PB with five.
Jai Newcombe led in the midfield (27 disposals, nine clearances, four tackles), alongside Conor Nash, who arguably had his best game of the season (21 disposals, 10 clearances, five tackles). Lloyd Meek was critical in the middle as well, beating Tristan Xerri in the hit outs, while Karl Amon played a big role down back, garnering 33 disposals and 782 metres gained.
It was a dominating performance from the Hawks against an improving North Melbourne squad. Leading at every break, Hawthorn finished the night 85 points ahead, kicking 23.12 from 63 inside fifties.
Coming into this Saturday night, Hawthorn will head back to Melbourne, looking to carry on the momentum of their last three wins as they face the St Kilda Saints at Marvel Stadium.
Last Time They Met
Playing in the absence of James Sicily, who dislocated his shoulder the week prior, Hawthorn defeated St Kilda back in round nine last year by a mere five points, down at UTAS.
Despite trailing on the stat sheet in many metrics, Hawthorn led the entirety of the match. A tight contest meant St Kilda were never far off, keeping themselves within a couple of kicks.
St Kilda effectively won the final quarter, keeping the Hawks goalless, while key forward Max King, and future Hawk, Josh Battle, kicked the final two majors of the game, narrowing the lead.
Jai Newcombe was electric, with a game-high 31 disposals and eight clearances, while Nick Watson and Dylan Moore were Hawthorn’s only players to register multiple goals.
Prior to that, the Saints had gotten the better of Hawthorn twice in season 2023, winning by 29 in round 20 and 10 in round 11.
Tale of the Tape
Despite this being 15th versus 5th, this game might prove to be more tricky than it may seem at first glance.
St Kilda have won the last three out of five against Hawthorn. The record appears like tit-for-tat, with each side taking turns winning. However, out of the last five home games at Marvel Stadium, the Saints have won the last four out of five.
With notable losses to the Western Bulldogs, West Coast Eagles, and Carlton, and having lost their last three in a row, the Saints are undoubtedly the underdogs in this particular match.
It is worth noting, however, that the Saints put the Fremantle Dockers to the sword at Optus Stadium in round 16.
In a match with eight lead changes, the Saints led at three quarter time by eight points after trailing by three at both breaks prior. This came after they challenged the Dockers in the midfield, dominating clearances and possession.
But a late surge from the Dockers saw the Saints overwhelmed in the final quarter, conceding the match by 12 points. Whilst it’s a loss, it is a notable performance for a bottom eight side against a finals contender. And fair reason not to underestimate the side.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is their most dangerous player, averaging 29 disposals and 7.7 marks from his last three games against Hawthorn, while ruckman Rowan Marshall has averaged 24 disposals, 27 hitouts from his last four against the Hawks.
Marshall was particularly effective in his last outing against Hawthorn, with 28 disposals, a game high 12 clearances, 11 tackles, and 35 hitouts. In comparison, Hawks ruck Lloyd Meek registered 46 hitouts, 12 disposals, eight tackles and one clearance. Their matchup this week should be exciting, given Meek’s current form.
At Hawthorn, Newcombe, Will Day, and Dylan Moore have been the top players against the Saints, each averaging 20+ disposals from their last four encounters.
The Side
With the unfortunate sidelining of Josh Weddle and Sam Butler to injury, spots have opened up for the skipper, James Sicily, and midfield stalwart James Worpel.
Weddle came of the ground sore last round and was immediately sent in for scans which revealed a bone stress reaction in his back. After playing 57 games straight since debut, the young utility and fan favourite may face an extended time on the sidelines as the seriousness of the injury is investigated.
Meanwhile, Butler is out for two weeks with some minor issues with his left leg, the same leg that suffered a horrific break last season.
It’s Sicily’s first game since playing Collingwood in round 12, taking time away with an ongoing hip and groin issue, which required minor surgery.
Worpel returns after a serious corkie sustained in the round 13 game against the Bulldogs.
It’s a big milestone for Mabior Chol, notching his 100th AFL game, while it’s Josh Battle’s first against his old side.
The Short of It
The margin for error for Hawthorn over the next two months is slim, with every win critical to their chances at finals this year. A loss here could see Hawthorn drop as low as eighth, but a win could see them potentially crack the top four by the end of the round.
On paper, Hawthorn are the clear favourites, but given past encounters and St. Kilda’s performance last week, this game could go down to the wire.
Round 17 • Saturday 5 July 2025 • 7:40 PM (AEST)
