Coming off three consecutive losses to play their fourth top eight side in as many weeks, Hawthorn’s position in the eight hangs in the balance.
Everything depends on the Hawks’ performances for the next fortnight, where they will face the Western Bulldogs and the Adelaide Crows – two sides in red hot form.
Hawthorn have lost the last two games by upwards of 40 points, putting them on a worrying downwards trajectory. A lack of tackling pressure, poise, and cohesion mainly in the midfield and forward line has seen the Hawks drop from third back to sixth on the ladder, casting doubt on their chances of staying within the eight by the midseason bye.
The Western Bulldogs themselves come off their bye, sitting at ninth on the ladder, just a game shy of Fremantle. The Bulldogs have recently found form with the return of their star midfielder and captain, Marcus Bontempelli, who, since returning from an injury sustained in the pre-season, has averaged 25 disposals, 5.7 clearances for the season so far.
The Last They Met
In their last outing, back in round 11, the Dogs narrowly lost to the Geelong Cats at GHMBA. Their 6-5 record sees them just outside the eight, with a healthy percentage of 126.5%, having lost two of their last five games.
Hawthorn faced Western Bulldogs in the pre-season, where the Dogs defeated them by 11 points down in Tasmania. It was the same fateful game that saw Bontempelli injure his calf, which saw him sidelined until April. The match also served as a precursor to how Hawthorn would play out their season – slow starts leading to hardy comebacks.
Prior to that, they met in the Elimination Final, last year, where the Hawks triumphed in a spirited performance. Their record from the past five games against the Dogs is three wins, two losses.
The Hawks’ top three players against Western Bulldogs from the last five games are Jai Newcombe who averages a whopping 30 disposals, 4.8 tackles, and a goal, James Sicily, who averages 22.8 disposals and eight marks, and Dylan Moore, who averages 20 disposals and 4.8 tackles.
The Tale Of The Tape
Given Hawthorn’s current form, and that this is a Bulldogs home game, many are left feeling pessimistic about a Hawthorn win.
The Western Bulldogs have a higher clearance rate than Hawthorn, a statistic that has been causing problems for Hawthorn, having slipped in the clearance rankings since last year. The Dogs average 41 clearances to Hawthorn’s 35.
The Dogs’ possession game is stronger too, averaging 379 a game to Hawthorn’s 359. Interestingly, despite Hawthorn’s abysmal tackling record of late, they are still leading Western Bulldogs in the tackle rankings averaging 58.7 to the Dogs’ 55.7.
Many questions surrounded how the team would look and if Sam Mitchell would make any big changes to the line-up, with options to bring in players like Sam Butler and Jai Serong, who have been extremely competitive in the VFL.
Thankfully, he didn’t have to replace Lloyd Meek, who was cleared for suspension on Saturday, following a hard yet clumsy spoil on Collingwood’s Patrick Lipinski. Hawthorn currently averages 41 hitouts, while Western Bulldogs average 36.9.
One glaring omission is that of James Sicily, who was sidelined on Tuesday following a flare up of an ongoing hip flexor issue.
Other omissions include Nick Watson, who is being ruled out with illness, and Jack Scrimshaw, who is being managed.
First new in for the side this week is Sam Butler, who has made a remarkable coming following almost a year on the sideline due to a horrific broken leg.
Butler has been turning heads at Box Hill, averaging over thirty disposals a game from the past month, and laid a whopping eleven tackles last weekend against Collingwood’s VFL Side.
The remaining inclusions are Max Ramsden and Seamus Mitchell, who are long overdue for a stint in the senior side to reward their consistent performances at Box Hill.
In Short
Much like last year, where every game became a make or break moment for the club, and the mentality of “bringing the mouthguards to training” was prevalent, the Hawks find themselves under a mountain of scrutiny and much work to do if they are to steady their season.
A win either this week or next will provide some security for their top eight spot, further losses will see them teeter on the edge.
Hawks fans are waiting anxiously to see whether their side will bounce back this Thursday night, but given the form of the opposition, they are keeping their expectations moderate.
